Officers king and zeng and the case of the unsupported. Buy counterfactual thought experiments in world politics. Significanctly, the entry for counterfactuals by trevor barnes in. The guiding idea behind counterfactual analyses of causation is the thought that as david lewis puts it we think of a cause as something that makes a difference, and the difference it makes must be a difference from what would have happened without it. Thought experiments, counterfactuals and comparative analysis. In the process, i distinguish between miracle and plausible world counterfactuals and. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics is an important book for all social scientists, not only those who study international relations. The role of mental simulations and counterfactual thinking. Effect of counterfactual and factual thinking on causal. Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives, ed. Statistical simulation and counterfactual analysis in social. This book is a huge help in untangling the role usually unconscious that counterfactual reasoning plays in everyday political thought, public dialogue, and policy. The author discusses three uses for counterfactual arguments and thought experiments and proposes eight criteria appropriate to plausible world counterfactuals.
Statistical simulation and counterfactual analysis in. Mark turner, cognitive dimensions of social science. Let me begin by praising gary king and langche zeng for their service to the field with the methods they describe in their paper king and zeng 2006a. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics. Counterfactuals seek to alter some feature or event of the pass and by means of a chain of causal logic show how the present might, or would, be different. A limitation of experiment 1 was that it did not include a control condition in which participants were neither asked to think counterfactual nor factually about the target event prior to judgment. Counterf actual thought experiments in world politics.
In particular, if one has reached the stage of thinking about thinking in world politics, get this book for the early chapters on theory. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics, 1996, and even geographers such as david gilbert and david lambert counterfactual geographies, journal of historical geography, 363 2010 pp. Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political. Evaluating counterfactual us policy action in syria, 2011 16. But counterfactuals are particularly useful for identifying causes when experiments. Counterfactual reasoning in foreign policy analysis the political. George orwell died in january 1950 at the age of 46. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics aaron belkin. Counterfactuals and foreign policy analysis oxford. Analysis counterfactuals, causal inference, and historical. Two experiments explore whether counterfactual thinking about enablers is distinct from counterfactual thinking about controllable events.
Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics logical, methodological and psychological perspectives. Pdf people spontaneously create counterfactual alternatives to reality. Belkin eds counterfactual thought experiments in world politics. Gedankenexperiment, gedankenexperiment, or gedankenerfahrung considers a hypothesis, theory, or principle for the purpose of thinking through its consequences. Pure thought experiments may produce unexpected insights.
The introductory paper, outlining different ways of using counterfactual arguments, is likely to become a standard reading in courses on methodology and research design. The term counterfactual conditional was coined by nelson goodman in 1947, extending roderick chisholms 1946 notion of a contrarytofact conditional. Statistical simulation and counterfactual analysis in social sciences francois gelineau, pierreolivier bedard, mathieu ouimet universite laval in this paper, we present statistical simulation techniques of interest in substantial interpretation of regression results. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics by accessibility books library as well as its powerful features, including thousands and thousands of title from favorite author, along with the capability to read or download hundreds of boos on your pc or smartphone in minutes. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume including james fearon. Tetlock and aaron belkin 2 causes and counterfactuals in social science. Counterfactual simulation in world politics 247 larserik cederman 12 counterfactuals, past and future 268 steven weber part six. Counterfactual definition of counterfactual by the free. Pdf effect of counterfactual and factual thinking on. The article is an attempt not only to bridge this alleged divide but also.
Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science. In the different sciences, knowledge about the world is mostly developed using empirical research that is based on discovering new empirical findings in the world. No methodology, including comparative counterfactual analysis. Exploring an analogy between cellular automata and historical processes james d. Counterfactuals, thought experiments, and singular causal analysis in history julian reiss thought experiments are ubiquitous in science and especially prominent in domains in which experimental and observational evidence is scarce. Counterfactuals, thought experiments, and singular causal. Fearon without the prior democratic modernization of england, the reactionary methods adopted in germany and japan would scarcely have been possible. Tetlock and belkin eds, counterfactual thought experiments in world politics note 14. Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently. Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives, in counterfactual thought experiments in world politics, ed. Counterfactual experiments substitute variables of the historical context and analyze how these changes would have affected outcomes.
Present chiefly in historiography, a counterfactual is essentially a what if. Smith eds, the dictionary of human geography, 2nd edition, oxford, 1986, 76. Pdf this example appears courtesy of a mit student and is anonymous by request. Project muse whats so different about a counterfactual. See for example, essays in tetlock and belkin eds, counterfactual thought experiments in world politics note 14. Commentaries conceptual blending and counterfactual argument in the social and behavioral sciences 291 mark turner 2 psychological biases in counterfactual thought experiments 296. Psychological biases in counterfactual thought experiments. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives. The paper addresses the first question in some detail and begins discussion of the second.
The best counterfactuals begin with clearly specified plausible worlds involving small and easily imaginable changes from the real world. Lebow states that good counterfactual thought experiments differ little from factual modes of historical reconstruction p. Chapter 1 in counterfactual thought experiments in world politics. The author discusses three uses for counterfactual arguments and thought experiments and proposes eight criteria appropriate to plausibleworld counterfactuals. Counterfactual thought experimcnls in world lr i, methodological, and psychological perspectives i cded hy 1111 111 i. Formulatingextracting hypotheses a political science guide. Building on earlier work in several disciplines, i develop a set of criteria for the conduct of counterfactual analysis in historical case studies. Previous research on counterfactual thoughts about prevention suggests that people tend to focus on enabling rather than causing events and controllable rather than uncontrollable events. Effect of counterfactual and factual thinking on causal judgments article pdf available in thinking and reasoning august 20033. Counterfactual thinking is a concept in psychology that involves the human tendency to create possible alternatives to life events that have already occurred. This essay represents an example of what might be termed counterfactual biography, or in niall fergusons phrase, virtual history. Counterfactual theories of causation stanford encyclopedia.
A counterfactual conditional abbreviated cf, is a conditional with a false ifclause. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics princeton. The methods of counterfactual experimentation need to be commensurate with the purposes for which it is used. Counterfactuals, causal inference, and historical analysis. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics political. The main purpose of such an exercise is to evaluate the solidity of an explanation provided for a historical outcome. Logical, methodological and psychological perspectives by philip e.
Effect of counterfactual and factual thinking on causal judgments. The methodological status and the viability of this very common procedure are unclear and are. Logical, list of contributors methodological, and psychological perspectives philip e. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. The way we think about politics, economics, law, and society, oxford university press, 2001. Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives. Experiments have compared the inferences people make from counterfactual conditionals and indicative conditionals. Scholars in comparative politics and international relations routinely evaluate causal hypotheses by referring to counterfactual cases where a hypothesized causal factor is supposed to have been absent. Kathleen singles bio kontrafaktische geschichtsdarstellung. Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives philip e. The ancient greek deiknymi, or thought experiment, was the most ancient pattern of mathematical proof, and existed before euclidean mathematics, where the emphasis was on the conceptual, rather than on the experimental part of a thoughtexperiment. Counterfactual thought experiments why we cant live without. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. The effect of controllability and causality on counterfactual.
Form and function counterfactual thought experiments in world politics. Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives, in tetlock, and belkin, fn. This article discusses the problem of thought experiments in austrian economics and takes as a starting point lawrence moss argument on the divide between the older austrian economistsfor whom thought experiments were crucialand the new generation that, in moss view, has abandoned such methods. Unmaking the west the university of michigan press. It is important to recognize that a major difficulty with all types of thought experiment, and particularly with counterfactual thought experiments, is that there are no formally accepted criteria for accurately measuring the risk of either type i errors false positive or type ii errors false negative in the choice of a potential causative. If he had lived, or a counterfactual life of george orwell. Legal argumentation is intended to resolve a difference of opinion between two or more legal parties by determining what are the facts in a case and finding an appropriate legal interpretation for these facts. Taking stock of recent literature on causality, we. The contentneutral pathway involves the way information is handled, as opposed to the particulars of the information itself. In counterfactual thought experiments in world politics, edited by philip e. More importantly, counterfactual thought experiments are essential, to the construction of analytical frameworks. Tetlock and aaron belkin, counterfactual thought experiments in world politics.
Without both the capitalist and reactionary experiences, the communist method would have been something entirely. Childrens appreciation of counterfactual alternatives to reality begins to make its first appearance as early as 2 years of age, when they begin to engage in pretend play, temporarily suspending their commitment to reality and adopting the perspective of a pretend situation e. Are counterfactual thought experiments a viable means of assessing hypotheses about national and international outcomes, or are they methodologically invalid in principle. Scenarios that rewrite world history pdf feedback customers never have still still left their own overview of the experience, or otherwise make out the print but. Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics free download as pdf file. Classically known as theneymanrubin counterfactual framework. Counterfactual inquiryor control of counterfactual situationsis essential to any causal claim. Thought experiments are ubiquitous in science and especially prominent in domains in which experimental and observational evidence is scarce. Tetlock, aaron belkin princeton university press, sep 8, 1996 political science 344 pages. Feb 27, 2009 thought experiments, counterfactuals and comparative analysis thought experiments, counterfactuals and comparative analysis aligica, paul.
One such domain is the causal analysis of singular events in history. That is, independent of the meaning contained in a counterfactual thought, the counterfactual may also ignite attentional, cognitive, or motivational processes. I go on to discuss three generic uses of counterfactual arguments and thought experiments. Tetlock and aaron belkin includes bibliographical references and index. Exploring an analogy between cellar automata and historical processes, in p. Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science by james d. Burtt professor of psychology and political science, the ohio state. Thought experiments, counterfactuals and comparative.
In this over view of the psychological basis of counterfactual thinking, we examine how such thoughts influence emotions and carry benefits for everyday behavior. Assuming he had lived to a healthy old age, the authors engage in a counterfactual thought experiment, speculating how he might have responded to numerous public controversies of the last half of the. Scenarios that rewrite world history until now regarding the publication weve got unmaking the west. Support is drawn from methodological argument and from examples showing the counterfactual strategy at work in research in the areas of comparative politics and international relations. Exploring an analogy between cellular automata and historical processes 39. Since its original publication, expert political judgment by new york times bestselling author philip tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Counterfactual thinking cft is a specific type of human thought involving mental representations of alternatives to past situations by perceiving the immediate environment to an imagined perspective 12. Widmann concludes with an account of the value of counterfactual thought in history and the astute recognition that counterfactual history, in contrast to concepts of history proposed by recent historiography, necessarily maintains a conservative notion of history as bound by facts p. Counterfactual think ing refers to mental constructions of alternatives to past events.
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